Lessons library
A curated canon. Read one a day for 36 days; revisit forever.
- V1Value
Margin of safety
Buy at a meaningful discount to intrinsic value. The discount, not the forecast, is what protects you when you're wrong.
Source · Benjamin Graham, The Intelligent Investor (1949)
- V2Value
Mr. Market is bipolar
The market is a moody business partner who quotes a price every day. Use his moods; do not be guided by them.
Source · Benjamin Graham, The Intelligent Investor
- V3Value
Buy a business, not a ticker
Treat every purchase as buying part of a real company. If you wouldn't own the whole thing for 10 years, don't own a slice for 10 minutes.
Source · Warren Buffett, Berkshire shareholder letters
- V4Value
Circle of competence
"Risk comes from not knowing what you're doing." Stay inside the boundary of what you can value confidently. Pass on the rest.
Source · Warren Buffett
- V5Value
Great business at fair price > fair business at great price
Quality compounds. A wonderful company bought at a reasonable multiple beats a mediocre one bought cheap, almost every time.
Source · Charlie Munger, Poor Charlie's Almanack
- V6Value
Scuttlebutt — talk to customers, suppliers, ex-employees
Financial statements describe the past. Conversations with people around the business describe the future.
Source · Philip Fisher, Common Stocks and Uncommon Profits (1958)
- B1Behavioral
Losses hurt ~2× more than gains feel good
Loss aversion makes you sell winners too early and ride losers too long. Notice the asymmetry before you act.
Source · Daniel Kahneman, Thinking Fast and Slow
- B2Behavioral
Know what you own and why
If you can't explain the thesis in 2 minutes with a crayon, you don't own it — you're holding it.
Source · Peter Lynch, One Up on Wall Street
- B3Behavioral
Invert, always invert
Ask how to fail first, then avoid those things. Most investment success is from not making mistakes, not from genius.
Source · Charlie Munger
- B4Behavioral
Wealth is what you don't see
Income makes you look rich. Savings rate makes you rich. The portfolio you don't have to liquidate is the one that compounds.
Source · Morgan Housel, The Psychology of Money
- B5Behavioral
Reasonable beats rational
A 'sub-optimal' portfolio you can stick with through downturns will outperform an 'optimal' one you abandon at the bottom.
Source · Morgan Housel, The Psychology of Money
- B6Behavioral
Don't do something — just stand there
Activity is the enemy of returns. The investor's chief problem, and even his worst enemy, is likely to be himself.
Source · John Bogle, The Little Book of Common Sense Investing
- R1Risk
Second-level thinking
Level 1: "This is a great company; buy." Level 2: "It's great — but is it priced as if it were great? What if everyone already knows?"
Source · Howard Marks, The Most Important Thing
- R2Risk
Risk = permanent loss of capital, not volatility
A 30% drawdown is uncomfortable but recoverable. A 100% loss in a bankrupt company isn't. Focus on the latter.
Source · Howard Marks, memos
- R3Risk
"You can't predict; you can prepare."
Markets are forecast-resistant. Position for a range of scenarios — including bad ones — instead of betting on one.
Source · Howard Marks, memos
- R4Risk
Build for antifragility
Some portfolios merely survive shocks; antifragile ones gain from them. Hold dry powder; avoid hidden leverage.
Source · Nassim Taleb, Antifragile
- R5Risk
Position size matters more than picks
How much you bet on each idea drives long-run wealth more than which ideas you pick. Never bet enough to ruin you.
Source · Ed Thorp / Kelly criterion (1956)
- R6Risk
Diversification is the only free lunch
Uncorrelated bets reduce portfolio risk without reducing expected return. Don't have 70% in one sector.
Source · Harry Markowitz / William Bernstein, The Four Pillars of Investing
- M1Macro
Cash is a position
Cash earns ~0% real but is the most liquid optionality you have. Always carry some — for fear, and for opportunity.
Source · Ray Dalio, Principles for Navigating Big Debt Crises
- M2Macro
Four economic regimes
Growth and inflation can each be up or down. Different asset classes win in each quadrant — diversify across them.
Source · Ray Dalio, All Weather portfolio framework
- M3Macro
Watch DXY before the IHSG opens
Strong DXY = capital flight from EM. When DXY breaks higher, foreigners sell LQ45 names first.
Source · Bank Indonesia FX & macro data
- M4Macro
Rates flip the sector playbook
Higher BI rate → banks earn more on NIM (good for BBCA/BBRI/BMRI); property and consumer cyclicals slow (bad).
Source · Bank Indonesia rate policy
- M5Macro
IHSG ≈ banks + commodities
Big-4 banks plus coal/nickel/CPO drive most index moves. Track CNY (China demand) and Brent/CPO before reading IHSG.
Source · IDX index composition data
- M6Macro
Foreign flows lead price
Net foreign buy/sell on LQ45 is a leading indicator for IDR and IHSG direction. Heavy outflows = expect drawdown.
Source · Bank Indonesia balance-of-payments reports
- I1Indonesia
Honest management first
Before any number, check the integrity of owners, directors, commissioners. Dishonest people don't run honest companies.
Source · Lo Kheng Hong, public interviews
- I2Indonesia
Read every annual report
LKH reads financial statements like newspapers, every morning, for decades. There is no substitute for the actual filings.
Source · Lo Kheng Hong
- I3Indonesia
"Mercy at Avanza prices"
Wait for great companies (Mercedes-grade) to trade at modest prices (Avanza-grade). It happens — in crises, panics, scandals.
Source · Lo Kheng Hong
- I4Indonesia
Beware gorengan stocks
Small caps with low free float and sudden volume spikes are often bandar-driven pumps. Bid/offer imbalance is the tell.
Source · Indonesian retail-investor folklore (Stockbit, Bibit communities)
- I5Indonesia
Avoid IPO FOMO
Most IDX IPOs underperform 12 months after lockup expiry. Let the lockup pass; let the dust settle; let earnings prove out.
Source · IDX IPO performance studies
- I6Indonesia
Respect ARA / ARB limits
IDX caps daily price moves (ARA = upper, ARB = lower). Don't chase locked-up stocks — you'll fill at the worst possible level.
Source · IDX trading rules — auto-reject thresholds
- P1Process
Run a checklist
Surgeons and pilots use checklists. So should you. The 5-check Lo Kheng Hong scorecard in this app is yours.
Source · Atul Gawande, The Checklist Manifesto / Charlie Munger
- P2Process
Pre-mortem every thesis
Imagine the investment failed badly 3 years from now. Write down the most likely cause. If you can't tolerate it, don't buy.
Source · Gary Klein / Munger inversion
- P3ProcessToday
Write your thesis down
An unwritten thesis morphs to fit whatever the price is doing. A written one lets you check whether you were right or just lucky.
Source · Standard analyst practice
- P4Process
If it's not obvious, pass
Edge comes from clear conviction, not effort. If you've researched twice and still can't decide, you don't have an edge here.
Source · Howard Marks, memo "It's Not Easy"
- P5Process
Rebalance annually
Yearly rebalancing of an IDX value basket has historically outperformed buy-and-hold (Sharpe ratio improvement documented).
Source · IDX value-portfolio backtests (academic studies)
- P6Process
Hold for 3+ years
Indonesian volatility punishes short horizons. Compounding compounds over decades, not quarters. Time in market > timing.
Source · Jack Bogle, Common Sense on Mutual Funds
Sources: Benjamin Graham, Warren Buffett, Charlie Munger, Philip Fisher, Peter Lynch, Daniel Kahneman, Morgan Housel, John Bogle, Howard Marks, Nassim Taleb, Ed Thorp, Harry Markowitz / William Bernstein, Ray Dalio, Lo Kheng Hong, Atul Gawande, Gary Klein, and IDX trading rules / Bank Indonesia macro data.